NFL Predictions?

[Dave2112]

Greetings all. Just thought we could use a handy-dandy football-type thread right about now. 🙂 Lots of surprises this year, and just as many disappointments. Of course, this has been a good year for Yours Truly, with most of the teams I follow doing well, and my two die-hard teams (Vikings and Saints) looking like they're headed for an NFC title showdown.

Might as well start with the Vikings. I have to admit, as a fan who bleeds purple and gold, I was one of the many during the offseason who really didn't want Brett Favre. Not that I didn't like him...even with a strong Packers-rivalry thing going, Brett's high on my list, if not Top 3, of the best QB's ever. Tons of respect there from me. But after the Jets campaign, I thought he was washed-up, too injured. Never been so happy to be wrong. The Vikes are not just fringe players this year, but legitimate contenders, and that's due to not only Brett, but balance. Just the threat of Favre is opening huge opportunities for Adrian Peterson, no longer facing 8 or 9 men in the box every down. Couple that with a monster defense, a killer front seven and Jared Allen, arguably the best pass rusher who doesn't wear an Indianapolis uniform.

The Saints...what can you say. The real deal as well. After going 8-8 last year with the best passing game in the league, it was all "if only they had a defense". Now they do. Considering the remaining schedule, I can comfortable say that should they get past the Patriots this Monday, they could very easily run the table and join said Pats in the 16-0 club.

Biggest disappointments in the NFC? Well, the Giants, of course. They got fat on easy teams and rolled to 5-0, but have struggled since. The lack of a true deep threat with the loss of Plaxico Burress has had a major impact, although the young Manningham could eventually develop into a go-to guy. Not this year, though. Gone is the fearsome pass rush and the consistent running game.

The huge Jay Cutler gamble/trade has not worked out for the Bears. In fact, who could have guessed that Denver would have wound up with the better part of that deal with Kyle Orton?

Over to the AFC...say it with me now...Cincinnati. Yeah, they just dropped one to the lowly Raiders, but even the 85 Bears dropped one they should have won. If anyone would have said back in September that the Bengals would sweep both the Ravens and defending-champion Steelers, both of last year's AFC Championship game teams, I would have called them crazy at the very nicest. But again...defense. Finally.

Peyton Manning continues his march straight into the Hall of Fame in the first minute of his eligibility. The best tandem of pass rushers in the league aren't hurting, either. My issue with predicting a Super Bowl for the Colts? Playoff performance. Lots of news about Indy's regular-season winning streak...but there are playoff losses nestled in those last seasons. Wanna beat Peyton Manning in the playoffs? Go to a 3-4 defense.

The two dark horse teams I see right now are San Diego and Philadelphia. Both are those kind of teams that can struggle, not really light up the scoreboard or stat sheets...but then string together a series of wins over really good teams out of nowhere. And it always seems to happen around time for the playoffs.

So, what's up for the rest of the season? Well, let's see....

Philly should take the NFC East. Dallas is in control now, but cannot show any manner of consistency. NFC North is Minnesota's to lose, and they'd have to try really hard to lose it now. The South already belongs to New Orleans and the Cardinals should prove to be the best of a really bad division and defend their NFC West title. But that's it. No miracle run this year...too much competition. Wild Cards will most likely be Dallas...and I'm gonna go with SanFran to slip in in an otherwise weak NFC this year.

The AFC East belongs to New England with little real competition. The Colts should do their yearly AFC South clinch in a couple weeks, and even after a tough loss, the sweeps of Baltimore and Pittsburgh should deliver the North to the Bengals. Watch for Denver to crash as San Diego defends their AFC West title. Wild Cards? Let's go with Pittsburgh and.....Houston. Yeah, I said it.

So what do the playoffs look like? Conventional wisdom always seems to pick the two #1 teams in the conferences to go to the Super Bowl right about now...and it so very rarely ever plays out that way. Which is why I'm going with....

...Minnesota and Cincinnati in Super Bowl 44.

Yep.

Ok, I'm a Vikes fan and maybe a bit biased, but there's that intangible air of the window closing in Minnesota and a serious hunger for it. With the NFC title game being played in a dome one way or the other, I gotta go with the better running game, fiercer defense and Hall of Fame legend.

And as much as the Colts are kicking ass right now, I'm of the "show me what you got in the playoffs" camp. The Colts are among the winningest teams in the regular season over the last 10 years...with one Super Bowl to show for it. The Pats are doing well, but they're not what they were a couple years ago, and not only is Tom Brady losing weapons fast (although Wes Welker and Randy Moss are a phenomenal tandem, there's really no consistent running game or slot options) but the vaunted defense is just about to the rebuilding phase. Cincinnati just has that swagger and confidence, and I guess it's my "gut feeling" call of the year.

So, we'll see in February how close that gut feeling is. 🙂

 

[FeatherDaemon1]

The Saints...what can you say. The real deal as well. After going 8-8 last year with the best passing game in the league, it was all "if only they had a defense". Now they do. Considering the remaining schedule, I can comfortable say that should they get past the Patriots this Monday, they could very easily run the table and join said Pats in the 16-0 club.

I have to take issue with this prediction. The Patriots are not just a pushover. We are much like the Centauri Empire in Babylon 5 we do still hold claim to our former glory. We did spank the Colts around for 3 quarters before the predictable Manning Magic took affect. And we do have a powerful passing trio between Brady, Moss and Welker. It is going to be a game where defense is thrown out the window. I've had Brees on enough of my fantasy teams. I know how good he is, but still I would take Brady in a pinch. It is going to be a game where offensive weapons are the determining factor and the Patriots simply have more of them. We will see! LOL!

 

[the_jimmy_james]

I think the team with the really big guys will win! 😀

 

[Budweiserbob!]

I think the team with the really big guys will win!

This fact will make it surprisingly easier for me to get a big NFL contract. 😀

 

[Dave2112]

I have to take issue with this prediction. The Patriots are not just a pushover. We are much like the Centauri Empire in Babylon 5 we do still hold claim to our former glory. We did spank the Colts around for 3 quarters before the predictable Manning Magic took affect. And we do have a powerful passing trio between Brady, Moss and Welker. It is going to be a game where defense is thrown out the window. I've had Brees on enough of my fantasy teams. I know how good he is, but still I would take Brady in a pinch. It is going to be a game where offensive weapons are the determining factor and the Patriots simply have more of them. We will see! LOL!

Oh, don't get me wrong. What I meant by that statement was (and it should have been phrased more succinctly, my bad) "IF the Saints get past the Patriots on Monday, they should be able to run the rest of the table." Meaning, the Patriots are a real challenge and if New Orleans passes THAT test, I don't see anyone else in the regular season getting in the way.

I'm not the biggest Pats fan, but I'm also not an idiot. 🙂 The Pats are always a danger to beat just about anyone fielded on any given day.

 

[chode]

Browns.........Dead last

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

the hollywood brother thinks that the nfc may come down to the siants, the vikings and the eagles, while the hollywood brother isn ot sure who will chanllenge the patriots on the afc side

 

[toesinhose]

I don't care who wins as long as it isn't the Squeelers.

 

[Dave2112]

And my Vikes continue to roll! 😀

 

[myfeet4youAZ]

Well, my predictions are no good this year. Before the season, I predicted the Steelers to meet the Eagles in the Superbowl.....ooops! The Steelers are going to have a hard time even making the playoffs, and the Eagles can go either way right now. The upside is, I'm a Giants fan, so I would take great pleasure in watching Philly throw away a season when they have so much talent at their disposal.

The way things are playing out, I really have no idea any more who's going to be there at the end. It's pretty obvious now who's for real and who's not, but there's no way to tell what will happen in the playoffs. I agree with your thoughts on the Colts....they're like Dan Marino's Dolphin squads from back in the day. They'd win 12-13 games and dump in the playoffs. I'd worry about that for Minnesota too. They look great right now, but Favre has a tendency to abandon you when you need him most (ask the Jets and Packers). He's almost always good for a 3-pick game when you just can't have it, and he's another one with all kinds of stats and wins, but only one ring for as great as he's supposed to be.

New Orleans looks dominant, but they also have to learn how to win in the post-season. Experience makes a big difference once the playoffs hit, but the upside for them is there are no big-time franchises that look like they're going to make the playoffs this year in the NFC.

Dallas looks OK now, but they will probably come apart in the playoffs again. I doubt they'll do anything significant until they get a real head coach in there.

I would say watch out for the Cardinals, especially since they just showed last year what they can do, and they now have that experience under their belt as well. If they get hot, they can score with anybody out there. Now you may thing I'm biased because I live in AZ, but believe me when I say that I don't even like the Cardinals. I'm a Giants fan, so I can be objective about the Cards.

As far as the AFC goes, I think it really just comes down to Indianapolis and New England. This is kind of a coin toss to me, but at the end of the day, the Pats have three times as many rings as Indy, so there's definitely that experience factor there.

I really don't think anybody else has a chance. San Diego will self-destruct like they always do. Too many hot-headed dopes playing for that team and a coach who can't control them. Norv Turner is sort of the AFC's version of Wade Phillips. Great coordinators, not-so-great head coaches.

I'm still not buying Cincinnati. I know they're winning, but it still doesn't convince me. I'd like to see how that defense does on the other side of the ball from Manning or Brady. I may be wrong, but I still don't believe in them.

After that there's really nobody else out there, no matter who the wild cards are. Denver. Baltimore, Jacksonville, Miami, Pittsburgh.....meh. The only team out of that bunch that would have a chance in my opinion would be the Steelers, and only if they can get themselves rolling, kind of like the Cardinals. The Steelers are another well-run, experienced franchise that knows how to win, so I won't count them out if they can overcome their up and down play and get into the playoffs.

Anyway, I guess the upside is both Pittsburgh and Philly are still alive, therefore my initial pick for the SB is still alive, but I don't have a lot of faith in either team right now. I'll stick with it though, because you never know. Although I do know my beloved Giants won't be there :cry.

It's setting up to be a very interesting post-season, and I can't wait to see it.

 

[tallbuckeye]

long-time Bengals fan here. even I'm not quite sure what to make of them, but I can tell you this; as long as they have a healthy running game, a healthy Carson Palmer, and most of the defense injury-free, they have a chance. I'd still pick Indy for the AFC; the Pats have peaked, and nobody else has game on a consistent basis.

The NFC is more interesting; the Vikes are good, but can they protect Favre enough for the old guy to last through the season and a couple of playoff games? They're not gonna win with Tarvaris, we already know that. But if they avoid that, the Vikes are the favre-orite. lol

The Saints... are they really that good? It should be noted that they have had the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this year. (Vikes have second-easiest...hmm, is there a pattern here.) Tonight should tell us something.

Everybody else...phhhtttpp. There are a lot of really bad teams this year, 3 teams at 1-10! So maybe it's time for some new blood on top.

 

[Dave2112]

Yeah, the Saints and Vikings don't exactly have first-place schedules...but I've always been in the "play the games you have" camp. Schedules are based on last season's standings, and a good portion of it is divisional and cross-conference commitments. That's why the playoffs are the Great Equalizer.

Take New Orleans, for example. Last season, the NFC South was pretty much THE division in football. It's not the Saints' fault that the teams in their division aren't what they were. Last year, both the Falcons and Panthers were playoff teams and Tampa Bay almost made it. Plus, I've always believed that if a team is doing well and playing good football, they are a good part of the reason their divisional rivals have bad records.

To cite your Bengals, take a look at the records of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cleveland. Two of each of those teams' losses are due to the Bengals alone. Same with Minnesota and New Orleans...and the Colts, for that matter.

The cross-conference games are done round-robin. This year, the NFC North drew the AFC North. So, you can't fault the Vikes for having to play a Browns game. 🙂

In short, you play the games on your schedule. I strongly believe that in the NFL, the "Any Given Sunday" rule is very real. Take a look at the Colts...they could easily be 6-5 instead of 11-0. Five consecutive 4th-quarter comebacks. And those would have been losses to the likes of Houston and Jacksonville as well, not just New England. And then the "strength of schedule" argument changes. The Giants start 5-0, then lose 5 of 6. The Colts start 6-0, then pull out 5 last-minute wins. Were the respective schedules THAT much different? That's when you start looking at a team's "X Factors". And that's what can win championships.

The Vikings, Saints and Colts (and to a slightly lesser extent, the Patriots) have those X Factors.

 

[maniactickler38]

Huge game tonight! this is like a superbowl! my prediction for the actual superbowl is the Pats and Minny, with the Pats crushing them. 😱

 

[melanie2]

Huge game tonight! this is like a superbowl! my prediction for the actual superbowl is the Pats and Minny, with the Pats crushing them. 😱

i'll take some of that action...

 

[Hootus1]

I think it will be Indy and Minnesota. I know my Packers won't be there. Hope the dallas cowpatties aint there either!

 

[maniactickler38]

i'll take some of that action...

Isabeau, this is the football section, not the tickling section. we all know you want tickling action. :blink

 

[Dave2112]

Oh, I'll take some of that, too. 😉 I do not think the Pats have what it takes to get past Minnesota. Not this year. The Pats are good as always, a threat to anyone...but it's the defense that is really struggling this season. Offensively, they've got huge weapons...but the defense is costing them games.

I'm watching the Saints take them apart right now, asamatteroffact. 🙂 The NO offense is just dicing the Pats D apart. Minnesota would do the same.

The Saints are the one big hurdle in the way of the Vikes making it, but I think they match up well, and have an edge over New Orleans on defense. Getting Jared Allen was the smartest move the Vikings have made since talking Randall Cunningham out of retirement.

My prediction for the Pats is that they'll win the AFC East, host a wild-card game and win...upset either the Colts or Bengals in the divisional round...then lose to either the Colts or Bengals (whichever one's left). I just don't see them getting past two elite AFC teams. Not with that defense.

The NFC championship is already decided. I just don't see anyone in the NFC challenging either New Orleans or Minnesota. The only real dark horse could be Philadelphia. One of those teams that can get on a hot streak late.

I'm actually sitting pretty good for the Super Bowl this year. Not only is my fave team (Vikings...duh) a real contender, but my second favorite team happens to be New Orleans and in the AFC, I'm a fan of both the Colts and the Bengals. Pretty good chance of two of "my teams" playing a Super Bowl.

 

[maniactickler38]

Goddamn saints field goal kicker cost me $200! i say bag job! he knew what the over was in the game. he cost people hundreds of millions of dollars! i now hate the saints with a passion. i hope minny beats their ass in the playoffs! 😛issed

 

[tallbuckeye]

I just realized that SD has the same record as the Bengals and they're ahead of Denver now. That would be a dark horse candidate... one, nobody's talking about them; two, they have quick strike offense with Gates, Jackson and a few RBs who know how to score. They have the most points in the AFC so far; if they scare up some defense, could be tough. With my luck, the Bengals will make the playoffs, backing in at the end and having to go to SD... they always suck on the West Coast (see Raiders game for evidence). And that would be the end of the Bengals. Now if they got to replay the Jan. 1982 'freezer bowl' in Cinci, where the wind chill was in the -50's, hey, we have a chance ;0

btw, the schedule strength stats I was using came from gbnreport.com, a nice future draft tracking site. The sched results are for the current season so far, so they will change as games are played. Browns/Bucs/Rams fans, check it out... you're at the top of the 2010 draft list! lol

 

[Dave2112]

Interesting that you mention the Chargers. I just took a lok at the NFL Power Rankings and the top 3 are just as they should be...1) New Orleans, 2) Indianapolis and 3) Minnesota.

The #4 team is suddenly San Diego. A team that started 2-3. That should tell you how much of a three-team league the NFL is this year. Like I mentioned earlier though...the Chargers and Eagles are always dark horses. (BTW, the Eagles are coincidentally 5th in the power rankings this week.)

San Diego can easily make the AFC game if they keep it together. They ARE a problem for Indy...as there's one thing Peyton has trouble with...the 3-4 defense. I just don't see them beating either New Orleans or Minnesota should they upset and make the Super Bowl.

Last night's decimation of New England should put to rest any argument of the Saints being "for real". The Pats can still move the ball, but their defense is actually getting worse. The Saints, at this point, could realistically join said Pats in the 16-0 club. Their offense is every bit as good as that 2007 Pats squad, if not better. And, they have a defense to go with it. Same with Minny.

 

[melanie2]

Goddamn saints field goal kicker cost me $200! i say bag job! he knew what the over was in the game. he cost people hundreds of millions of dollars! i now hate the saints with a passion. i hope minny beats their ass in the playoffs! 😛issed

Well maniac you dope..that's what you get for betting on games...can't you just watch for the fun of it???

 

[maniactickler38]

Well maniac you dope..that's what you get for betting on games...can't you just watch for the fun of it???

Hell no! :stickout