Dave2112
Level of Cherry Feather
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So, with the regular season all wrapped up, how do the playoff teams stack up? Here’s one long-time fan’s outlook for what looks to be a very interesting January.
AFC
New England Patriots – The most successful no-name defense since, well…the No-Name Defense of the ’72 Dolphins. Also the first team since those Fins to win their last 12 games. Bill Bellichik has done wonders with a banged-up defense that has seen several DBs, LBs and DLs rotated in and out of the line-up. Conventional wisdom puts the Pats in Houston for the Super Bowl, but there are questions. Can the Pats D stop the higher powered offenses that they are going to meet? Can they sustain a running game to compete against the winning teams and their powerful Defenses? Most of the Pats success has come against teams with losing records. One foreboding stat…three of the last four AFC Championships have been won by the visiting team. However, the Patriots have the “X” factor that keeps them winning games.
Kansas City Chiefs – I haven’t been completely sold on KC all year. A few years back, they were 13-3 and lost their first playoff game under similar regular-season circumstances. They’ve given up 45 points in back-to-back games and they’re streaky. It’s all going to depend on which team shows up. Priest Holmes is the one guy who can really give New England a major problem, but the passing game is going to have to step up. Probably the best special teams in the AFC, however…and those things often decide playoff games.
Indianapolis Colts – Again, it depends on which team shows up. Peyton Manning and Co. always have huge success in the regular season, but are still looking for their first playoff win. They should win their home game, but the road will be the real test. Edgerrin James needs to have a streak of good games and stop trying to be Emmitt Smith. Marvin Harrison is dependable, and the emergence of Stokely should keep him from being double-teamed on every down. Indy could very well be the dark-horse that slips into the Super Bowl…if they can put together three solid games. If it comes down to the kickers, Vanderjagt is the best right now, having won the NFL title for consecutive FGs.
Tennessee Titans – You never know what this team is going to do and they always seem to win the ones that are out of reach. However, Steve McNair’s health could be a factor and Neil O’Donnell was playing catch in the backyard three weeks ago. Eddie George is solid but unpredictable. The strength could be the young wide receivers…good enough to make big things happen, unknown enough to avoid constant double-teams.
Baltimore Ravens – The better of four weak teams in the moribund AFC North, they are in by virtue of Cincinnati’s loss. A great defense, but too shaky an offense to go far in the playoffs, especially on the road. Not without a shot, but pretty much filling an available playoff spot. Jamal Lewis is fantastic, but without other weapons to speak of, there’ll be 8 men in the box against him from the word Go. However, they came out of the wild-card round in 2000 to win the Super Bowl against all expectations. I wouldn’t hold your breath for history to repeat itself here, though.
Denver Broncos – A hard team to gauge at this point. Shanahan rested most of his important starters in the season ender against Green Bay with nothing to lose or gain. As good as any team out there when firing on all cylinders and when Clinton Portis is on a roll. Out of all the wild-card teams, the Broncos have the best shot at running the tables. Not overly great at any one aspect of the game, but solid all around.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles – Handed a late Christmas miracle when the Rams lost to the lowly Lions, the Eagles get to play at home throughout the playoffs. There are several questions, the most important of which is “Can they win a championship game?” Always a bridesmaid, never a bride…and time is running out. Usually, the running-back-by-committee approach doesn’t gain much, but the Eagles are pulling it off very well. It keeps defenses off-balance. McNabb is a better QB when he’s under pressure and throwing on the run, so teams might be wise to simply contain him. Defense is usually the strong point of the Philly teams, but this year there are a few key injuries. This could be the year if they can put together two great games.
St. Louis Rams – Are these guys really as good as their record shows? A final-game loss to the Detroit Lions is sure to carry questions into the playoffs. Also, the Bulger/Warner question now comes back to rear its ugly head when the Rams need it least. Luckily, the NFC is offering up a relatively weak set of opponents, and St. Louis should have only Philly to really worry about. On the other hand, a high-powered offense like Green Bay or Seattle could cause unexpected problems to a one-game-good-one-game-bad defense.
Green Bay Packers – Never count the Pack out. Of all the first-round teams, the Packers are the one you can easily picture in Houston on Feb 1st. Brett Favre is playing with his usual passion and, like John Elway in years past, can carry a team on his shoulders. Plus, the way they got into the playoffs (a miracle Arizona victory over Minnesota) is sure to manifest itself in motivation. The defense needs to step up, however, if the Pack are to go far in the playoffs. Special teams are also a question mark and field position always plays a big role in playoff games. Not the shoe-in they used to be, but the NFC’s dark-horse favorite nonetheless.
Carolina Panthers – The buzz on this team seems to have died down a bit, even amongst themselves. The big problem that’s going to get Carolina eliminated early is the horrible secondary. The front seven is as good as (if not better) than any in the league, but they’re going to get torched by the likes of Green Bay, St.Louis or Philadelphia. Teams are going to have a hard time gaining rushing yards on them, though, so if they can keep it close, there’s a shot here. A ray of hope may be at running back and the O-line is great.
Seattle Seahawks – Better than they look on paper or on record. The big problem is the choke-factor, not to mention the lack of road wins. The last-game win on the road against San Francisco could carry over into the playoffs, but these guys are going to have to buckle down, facing three road games to achieve the unthinkable. Matt Hasslebeck is playing very well, and a trio of dependable wide receivers will counter any double-team attempts. Shawn Alexander is running well, but needs a little help from the offensive line. He’s one of those guys that if you need 6 yards, he’ll get you seven…if you need 9 yards, he’ll get you seven. Could be used as an effective fourth receiver with his sure hands, though. A long-shot at best, but nothing’s impossible.
Dallas Cowboys – Now this is impossible. Not to knock the superb job that Bill Parcells has done with this team, or the great success they’ve had after back-to-back 5-11 seasons…but they played a last-place schedule and were shut out twice on the road against inferior teams. It took a miracle bad kick to beat the lowly Giants the first time and weak New Orleans ended their season on a bad note. There isn’t one player you can look to to win a big game with superb play. If coaching alone could win a Super Bowl, Dallas would be the hands-down favorite. However, Parcells has cast Quincy Carter as a lame-duck quarterback (not a good thing to do before the playoffs). The bright spot is Troy Hambrick who could be the future of this team. They will have to play three mistake-free games to have a chance, although they could escape the first round and have something to build on for next year.
The last week of the season was a real bitch, with the Lions knocking the Rams out of #1, the Cardinals miracle victory over Minnesota after being down 17-6 with 4 and a half minutes left…onside kick recovery and all. As a Vikings fan, I was pissed…I can’t believe my team started this season 6-0. Then again, to be fair, if they can’t beat Arizona on the road, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. At least the Seahawks are in it. And the Colts with a big second-half comeback to win the AFC South…that was cool.
If I had to pick the Super Bowl today, I’d be hard pressed. There’s no clear-cut match-up, as almost any of these teams could conceivably make it. I could make two picks, really. One with my head…purely based on performance, how the teams match up, records, home-field, offense vs. defense and all that. So my “Head” pick is going to be…
Philadelphia over Indianapolis
Now, my “Gut” pick is based on trends and very recent performances, the ones that carry over into the playoffs. It’s also based on the fact that the previous five Super Bowls have included at least one wild-card or “Cinderella” team. A team that snuck into the playoffs, or had a great season after years of mediocrity. My “Gut” picks….
Seattle over Kansas City
Time will tell. Let’s get ready for the playoffs!
AFC
New England Patriots – The most successful no-name defense since, well…the No-Name Defense of the ’72 Dolphins. Also the first team since those Fins to win their last 12 games. Bill Bellichik has done wonders with a banged-up defense that has seen several DBs, LBs and DLs rotated in and out of the line-up. Conventional wisdom puts the Pats in Houston for the Super Bowl, but there are questions. Can the Pats D stop the higher powered offenses that they are going to meet? Can they sustain a running game to compete against the winning teams and their powerful Defenses? Most of the Pats success has come against teams with losing records. One foreboding stat…three of the last four AFC Championships have been won by the visiting team. However, the Patriots have the “X” factor that keeps them winning games.
Kansas City Chiefs – I haven’t been completely sold on KC all year. A few years back, they were 13-3 and lost their first playoff game under similar regular-season circumstances. They’ve given up 45 points in back-to-back games and they’re streaky. It’s all going to depend on which team shows up. Priest Holmes is the one guy who can really give New England a major problem, but the passing game is going to have to step up. Probably the best special teams in the AFC, however…and those things often decide playoff games.
Indianapolis Colts – Again, it depends on which team shows up. Peyton Manning and Co. always have huge success in the regular season, but are still looking for their first playoff win. They should win their home game, but the road will be the real test. Edgerrin James needs to have a streak of good games and stop trying to be Emmitt Smith. Marvin Harrison is dependable, and the emergence of Stokely should keep him from being double-teamed on every down. Indy could very well be the dark-horse that slips into the Super Bowl…if they can put together three solid games. If it comes down to the kickers, Vanderjagt is the best right now, having won the NFL title for consecutive FGs.
Tennessee Titans – You never know what this team is going to do and they always seem to win the ones that are out of reach. However, Steve McNair’s health could be a factor and Neil O’Donnell was playing catch in the backyard three weeks ago. Eddie George is solid but unpredictable. The strength could be the young wide receivers…good enough to make big things happen, unknown enough to avoid constant double-teams.
Baltimore Ravens – The better of four weak teams in the moribund AFC North, they are in by virtue of Cincinnati’s loss. A great defense, but too shaky an offense to go far in the playoffs, especially on the road. Not without a shot, but pretty much filling an available playoff spot. Jamal Lewis is fantastic, but without other weapons to speak of, there’ll be 8 men in the box against him from the word Go. However, they came out of the wild-card round in 2000 to win the Super Bowl against all expectations. I wouldn’t hold your breath for history to repeat itself here, though.
Denver Broncos – A hard team to gauge at this point. Shanahan rested most of his important starters in the season ender against Green Bay with nothing to lose or gain. As good as any team out there when firing on all cylinders and when Clinton Portis is on a roll. Out of all the wild-card teams, the Broncos have the best shot at running the tables. Not overly great at any one aspect of the game, but solid all around.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles – Handed a late Christmas miracle when the Rams lost to the lowly Lions, the Eagles get to play at home throughout the playoffs. There are several questions, the most important of which is “Can they win a championship game?” Always a bridesmaid, never a bride…and time is running out. Usually, the running-back-by-committee approach doesn’t gain much, but the Eagles are pulling it off very well. It keeps defenses off-balance. McNabb is a better QB when he’s under pressure and throwing on the run, so teams might be wise to simply contain him. Defense is usually the strong point of the Philly teams, but this year there are a few key injuries. This could be the year if they can put together two great games.
St. Louis Rams – Are these guys really as good as their record shows? A final-game loss to the Detroit Lions is sure to carry questions into the playoffs. Also, the Bulger/Warner question now comes back to rear its ugly head when the Rams need it least. Luckily, the NFC is offering up a relatively weak set of opponents, and St. Louis should have only Philly to really worry about. On the other hand, a high-powered offense like Green Bay or Seattle could cause unexpected problems to a one-game-good-one-game-bad defense.
Green Bay Packers – Never count the Pack out. Of all the first-round teams, the Packers are the one you can easily picture in Houston on Feb 1st. Brett Favre is playing with his usual passion and, like John Elway in years past, can carry a team on his shoulders. Plus, the way they got into the playoffs (a miracle Arizona victory over Minnesota) is sure to manifest itself in motivation. The defense needs to step up, however, if the Pack are to go far in the playoffs. Special teams are also a question mark and field position always plays a big role in playoff games. Not the shoe-in they used to be, but the NFC’s dark-horse favorite nonetheless.
Carolina Panthers – The buzz on this team seems to have died down a bit, even amongst themselves. The big problem that’s going to get Carolina eliminated early is the horrible secondary. The front seven is as good as (if not better) than any in the league, but they’re going to get torched by the likes of Green Bay, St.Louis or Philadelphia. Teams are going to have a hard time gaining rushing yards on them, though, so if they can keep it close, there’s a shot here. A ray of hope may be at running back and the O-line is great.
Seattle Seahawks – Better than they look on paper or on record. The big problem is the choke-factor, not to mention the lack of road wins. The last-game win on the road against San Francisco could carry over into the playoffs, but these guys are going to have to buckle down, facing three road games to achieve the unthinkable. Matt Hasslebeck is playing very well, and a trio of dependable wide receivers will counter any double-team attempts. Shawn Alexander is running well, but needs a little help from the offensive line. He’s one of those guys that if you need 6 yards, he’ll get you seven…if you need 9 yards, he’ll get you seven. Could be used as an effective fourth receiver with his sure hands, though. A long-shot at best, but nothing’s impossible.
Dallas Cowboys – Now this is impossible. Not to knock the superb job that Bill Parcells has done with this team, or the great success they’ve had after back-to-back 5-11 seasons…but they played a last-place schedule and were shut out twice on the road against inferior teams. It took a miracle bad kick to beat the lowly Giants the first time and weak New Orleans ended their season on a bad note. There isn’t one player you can look to to win a big game with superb play. If coaching alone could win a Super Bowl, Dallas would be the hands-down favorite. However, Parcells has cast Quincy Carter as a lame-duck quarterback (not a good thing to do before the playoffs). The bright spot is Troy Hambrick who could be the future of this team. They will have to play three mistake-free games to have a chance, although they could escape the first round and have something to build on for next year.
The last week of the season was a real bitch, with the Lions knocking the Rams out of #1, the Cardinals miracle victory over Minnesota after being down 17-6 with 4 and a half minutes left…onside kick recovery and all. As a Vikings fan, I was pissed…I can’t believe my team started this season 6-0. Then again, to be fair, if they can’t beat Arizona on the road, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. At least the Seahawks are in it. And the Colts with a big second-half comeback to win the AFC South…that was cool.
If I had to pick the Super Bowl today, I’d be hard pressed. There’s no clear-cut match-up, as almost any of these teams could conceivably make it. I could make two picks, really. One with my head…purely based on performance, how the teams match up, records, home-field, offense vs. defense and all that. So my “Head” pick is going to be…
Philadelphia over Indianapolis
Now, my “Gut” pick is based on trends and very recent performances, the ones that carry over into the playoffs. It’s also based on the fact that the previous five Super Bowls have included at least one wild-card or “Cinderella” team. A team that snuck into the playoffs, or had a great season after years of mediocrity. My “Gut” picks….
Seattle over Kansas City
Time will tell. Let’s get ready for the playoffs!
