Realistically, I dont think we can expect to go into Cincy and sweep the Reds. We need two of three, to be 2 or 3 games out of the WC. If we gain a game, with seven weeks left, we are fine. I figure, if we pick up a half game or game a week, we are there. The problem is that the wild card is so crowded, with so many teams in contention, that it is unlikely we will know who wins it until the last day of the season.
It hasnt always been like this. In some years, like 1999, we've had scenarios where we had a wild card tie, and had to have a two team playoff, like the Mets and Reds did in 1999. In 2000, the Mets won the wild card outright by several games, and locked it up with a week to go. Unless some team gets very hot, or a bunch of teams suddenly collapse, I see that there might well be four or five teams within a couple of games of the wild card, with a week or two to go.
Fearless prediction: The 2006 baseball season will enter its final week with at least two, three or maybe four teams in contention for the wild card, and we will not know until the last weekend, last day,or will even have to have a wild card playoff, to see who is finally the wild card team in the NL.
Mitch