My Commentary on the "National League Least, ahem, East"
Has anyone noticed how crazy this division is? All five teams in the division are at least 1 game about 500, with the Marlins in last place, and right now, the Nationals in first place. No team has managed to take any kind of a commanding lead in the division, although right now the Nationals are riding a five game win streak. This division, logically, should end up as a race between my Braves, the Marlins, and Phillies. Atlanta should be playing a lot better then they are, but, at the moment, have been devestated by injuries, with pitchers Mike Hampton and John Thomson on the DL, and slugger Chipper Jones perhaps heading for surgery that could keep him out 2 months or longer.
In all the other five divisions in baseball, each division leader has a lead of at least several games, and has established themselves as a solid team. Not in this division.
Historically, the NL East, while dominated by the Braves since they moved from the West in 1995, has had a couple of times where the division winner was less than stellar, and eeked out a division "win" in a very close race, such as in 2001, when the Braves less than dominated the competetion with only an 88-74 record, and a two game decision over the second place Phils. 1973 also comes to mind, when the "Ya Gotta Believe" Mets, led by the late Tug Macgraw's battle cry, won the East with only 82 wins, in a year when the division was almost as close as it is this year, with the exception of the last place Phillies.
I have been waiting for someone in this division to get hot, and put a lead of several games up there. So far, it hasnt happened. Each team in the division has been very streaky.
Barring an unexpected run by one of the clubs, I forsee that this divsion could possibly stay as it is now for the rest of the year, with all five teams hovering around 500, or a few games above, or below, and possibly yield a division "winner" who finishes with a total of 85 wins. I'm not saying that its definitely going to happen, because someone could unexpectedly get hot, but looking at each team, they all have their share of strengths, and also very glaring weaknesses. The Braves, for example, have major injuries. When healthy, they have a top starting rotation. However, even when everyone gets healthy, they have a very weak offense, and lack a real bullpen closer, as Dan Kolb has been a major disappointment.
So, my call is that this division remains close all year, with a division winner who isnt very solid. I could be wrong, but this is how I see it now.
Mitch